.- Al menos en un 20 por ciento, debido a los efectos de la pandemia y a las nuevas políticas públicas, informó el director general de UNIDEM, Francisco Cuevas
Por: ELIGIO GOMEZ BADILLO
ECATEPEC, Méx.- La inversión privada, nacional y extranjera se desplomará al menos un 20 por ciento para el próximo año con respecto al 2019, debido a los efectos de la pandemia y a las nuevas políticas públicas, aseguró el director general de la Unión Industrial del Estado de México (UNIDEM) Francisco Cuevas Dobarganes.
Recordó que en los últimos meses ha bajado de manera muy importante la confianza de los inversionistas, y aunque se dará una rápida recuperación del empleo en los próximos tres meses, se estima que el PIB per cápita recupere los niveles del 2019, hasta finales del sexenio.
Respecto de las afirmaciones del presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador, de que la recuperación será económica será como una “V”, aseguró que tiene razón en lo que se refiere al empleo, pues de las personas que dejaron de trabajar de abril y mayo, que fueron 12 millones, alrededor de un 80 por ciento recuperará su trabajo en los próximos dos o tres meses.
“Esto se debe a que todas las empresas no esenciales dejaron de trabajar los últimos 3 meses, y al volverlo a hacer, sus empleados regresarán a sus actividades a partir de julio cuando el semáforo epidemiológico cambie gradualmente de rojo a naranja”, detalló.
Cuevas Dobarganes estimó que después de que la economía se restablezca totalmente cuando el semáforo pase a verde, situación que debería de ocurrir en los primeros trimestres del 2021, sólo se perderán alrededor de dos millones de empleos, de los cuales estimamos que sea un millón de formales y uno de informales.
Consideró que la firma y entrada en vigor del T-MEC ayudará a que la actividad productiva se restablezca, pues si no se hubiera dado, los tiempos de recuperación económica de México, serían mayores a 10 años.
Sin embargo, debido a que la demanda se contraerá, los egresos de las empresas se incrementarán producto de las inversiones y gastos que tendrán que hacer para cumplir con las normas de sanidad; seguramente habrá nuevos recortes de personal, reducción de salarios y renegociación de prestaciones.
“Ello será ocasionado por un esperado reacomodo de la economía, en el que las empresas buscarán sobrevivir ante la nueva normalidad, que entre otras cosas, implicará reducciones
de márgenes brutos de utilidad”, apuntó el líder empresarial.
El director de UNIDEM advirtió que una vez que la economía abra por completo, se registrarán algunos cierres de empresas que no pudieron, con sus nuevos márgenes de rentabilidad y volumen de ventas, absorber los costos, gastos e intereses y pagos de capital de las deudas contraídas durante la pandemia.
Este efecto producirá el cierre de una gran cantidad de empresas formales e informales, sobre todo de giros como restaurantes, gimnasios, salones de eventos, bares y una amplia gama de empresas de servicios. Comentó que, ante una baja en los ingresos familiares, los gastos en ese tipo de empresas son los primeros que se recortan.
Cuevas Dobarganes agregó que la recaudación de impuestos también tendrá una sensible baja, lo que ocasionará que salvo que haya endeudamiento, bajarán de manera importante la inversión y gasto públicos, pero al mismo tiempo, el ingreso de las remesas permitirá que haya cierta estabilidad en el tipo de cambio.
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